Gadkari and Shivraj - Will one of them make it?
Having lost its script to craft a massive victory by playing the old tune of divisive politics, the BJP has to look at its options and the ground realities. Modi seems keen to stick on and ride out what he sees as a temporary setback. But what is good in the long term for BJP, India and our democratic resilience?
What the Modi-Shah combine is trying out now – stitching up a tactical coalition with JDU and TDP- may face innumerable bumps on the way. Though technically this was a pre-poll alliance, anybody who has watched him in the past would not vouch for the dependability of Nitish. He is the most slippery and shrewd of our Opposition players and has never shown qualms in switching sides in the wink of an eye. Nitish might just be waiting for the opportune moment to strike. If the BJP has the Party’s long-term interest in mind, it is better to look beyond Nitish to solidify the alliance.
Udhav Thakre would be a more natural and dependable ally if he could be courted and won back. Restoring the Maharashtra Chief Ministership to him and undoing the Fadnavis-engineered Shiv Sena split (by possibly facilitating Shinde’s rehabilitation to Udhav Sena or shift to BJP) would be the icebreaker to get the relationship back on track.
There is another issue relating to the NDA-BJP leadership. In the context of the bad blood that flowed between Fadnavis and Udhav, it would be naïve to expect the latter to support the Modi-Shah combine. BJP can look to replace the Modi-Shah duopoly with a more benign leadership at the top.
Even RSS seems to be upset with the arrogance, intentional or otherwise, of Modi. There is a definite narcissist streak in Modi and that has hampered free and open communication between him and various political stakeholders. Hence if a durable NDA 3.0 is the aim, it makes sense for the BJP to seriously consider change of leadership.
Shivraj Chouhan and Raj Nath Sigh both have a congenial and acceptable image and can be a viable face to head the Government if need be. Also, on a wider acceptability combined with administrative ability, Nitin Gadkari scores high. As for the RSS, both Shivraj and Nitin would be, seemingly, more acceptable than Modi who tried to play out his muscular leadership a bit too seriously.
If Modi somehow succeeds in carrying on for a third term we can expect acrimony, policy bounces and lingering uncertainty for much of the term. There is every possibility of either the coalition falling apart or the power-hungry UPA waiting in the wings turning the tables on Modi-Shah by playing the poaching game back to them.
All in all, it is a bumpy ride for politics, economy and India’s geopolitical stance.
Comments