We are just two stops away from the end of the journey. The much-awaited dawn on 4th June is premised upon an unexpected and fast-developing scenario of political suspense.
What has changed since the notification of Elections? Here are a few anchors around which 2024 election results would unfold.
Firstly, we are heading to a wave-less election. There are no overarching national themes that have enthused the voters of different parts of the country. There are no surprises left in Modi’s piggy bag. With all high voltage deliverables like Art. 370 and Ram Temple delivered Modi’s stature as the Santa Claus who can deliver the most complex gifts has diminished.
Secondly, RSS seems to have developed cold shoulders in supporting Modi, similar to their getting fatigued over Vajpayee. The Sangh feels apprehensive of allowing Modi, the individual to outgrow the organization that brought him to power. I had this doubt all along in this election runup whether RSS was distancing itself from Modi. Now my doubt seems to have turned affirmative.
Thirdly, there is undoubtedly a visible fallout of Modi’s arrogance and his overbearing power politics aimed at crushing not only dissent but also allies and potential allies. He has seemingly antagonized many potential allies who could be tapped in case needed – like Jagan Mohan Reddy and Naveen Patnaik. I also feel that treating Udhav Thackeray shabbily was avoidable.
Fourthly, over-communicating the cliched pitch of demonizing Muslims has proved to be counter-productive. Theory of diminishing returns! There is a Modi fatigue in place, coming as it does from the predictability of his narratives. Also, the inconsistencies in messaging are taking the juice out of his words.
Fifthly, by making the campaigning a virtual one-man affair, he failed to tap the strength of Yogi Aditya Nath, Gadkari, Rajnath Singh and Shivraj Chouhan. And don’t forget the humiliating sidelining of Vasundhara Raje.
I would say the bleeding of BJP looks self-inflicted. Even if Modi and BJP get through with bruises, the power to go for the needed reforms would be significantly curtained.
But all this doesn’t mean that Congress is on revival. Far from it. Congress may not cross 60-70 on its own. In the opposition space, we may be nearing the exit of RaGa as a key figure. It will be the era of regional parties in the opposition. Congress will surely gravitate to the only unexplored Gandhi family leader left – Priyanka Vadra Gandhi!
Let D-Day come and let us switch off Netflix and watch the greatest soap opera on the news channels.
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